Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 11.717805 13.150631 14.792708 16.838159 19.353186 22.393601 26.426584
2024-10-27 9.598842 11.245207 13.268402 16.002112 19.708610 24.740285 32.451067
2024-11-03 9.411988 11.465186 14.158056 18.099848 24.021728 33.192637 50.057366
2024-11-10 8.905563 11.148183 14.229464 19.018025 26.821368 40.348347 69.978991
2024-11-17 8.007496 10.171676 13.221379 18.122731 26.498382 42.066003 80.465726
2024-11-24 7.475039 9.640094 12.772804 17.991618 27.389373 46.322363 100.538561
2024-12-01 7.007936 9.151276 12.321699 17.767323 28.035040 50.314003 124.508321
2024-12-08 6.656306 8.796887 12.031536 17.757744 29.070963 55.637148 161.367142
2024-12-15 6.400422 8.561198 11.897811 17.991823 30.646295 63.116865 225.251273
2024-12-22 6.027790 8.118181 11.386379 17.464868 30.467501 65.727285 272.266199
2024-12-29 5.789527 7.866217 11.165448 17.449442 31.436587 72.403262 381.456849
2025-01-05 5.467887 7.462948 10.658894 16.822492 30.835596 73.666030 452.614426
2025-01-12 5.101970 6.986435 10.023480 15.934313 29.585407 72.679582 507.901860
2025-01-19 4.786880 6.576168 9.477020 15.174079 28.539853 72.148736 582.509289
2025-01-26 4.919585 6.892214 10.208854 17.101345 35.004933 108.653769 5205.331615
2025-02-02 4.872377 6.907507 10.406433 17.941859 38.886581 141.493240 NaN
2025-02-09 4.610580 6.547613 9.888736 17.122343 37.435208 139.788532 NaN
2025-02-16 4.457525 6.364407 9.687273 17.002170 38.228239 155.677133 NaN
2025-02-23 4.305350 6.174835 9.460563 16.796500 38.695073 170.668885 NaN
2025-03-02 4.187317 6.037927 9.324115 16.787714 39.861367 195.436626 NaN
2025-03-09 4.102414 5.953826 9.282516 17.002359 41.937406 237.752316 NaN
2025-03-16 3.946449 5.738434 8.972185 16.518970 41.223011 245.069286 NaN
2025-03-23 3.850095 5.623948 8.853388 16.504810 42.383582 285.050176 NaN